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Research blog / Kuwait public economics / August 2026

Kuwait Does Not Have One Import Exposure

Six product baskets, origin concentration, and a mechanical currency index

By Abdulmalik Altararwa

At a glance

Question
How concentrated were the recorded origins of six import baskets, and how did fixed pre-2022 sourcing weights load them onto covered origin currencies?
Main finding
The baskets differ sharply. Electrical equipment was almost five times as concentrated as vegetables in 2024, and covered currency paths also diverged.
Evidence limit
Origin area is not invoice currency. The anonymous chapter data do not contain usable quantities or product prices, so this is not an inflation or pass-through estimate.
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A claim such as 'Kuwait imports most of what it consumes' hides meaningful differences across products. I compare origin concentration for six broad import chapters and then hold 2019 to 2021 origin weights fixed to construct a mechanical currency-exposure index. The exercise shows where external exposure may enter. It does not show whether importers invoiced in those currencies or whether any movement reached prices in Kuwait.

Trade panel
3,281 chapter-origin-year records
Products
Six selected HS chapters
Years
2019 through 2024
Displayed currency baskets
Four with at least 80% coverage

Six import baskets from public records

The six Harmonized System chapters are meat, dairy and eggs, vegetables, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and electrical equipment. The data contain broad chapters and recorded partner areas, not products, firms, invoices, or shipments.

For each chapter and year, I calculate a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index from import-value shares across non-group origin areas. The index rises when more recorded value comes from fewer origins. It is a concentration measure for the sourcing structure, not a price index or a ranking of social vulnerability.

Electrical equipment stands apart

Line chart of Kuwait's origin-area concentration for six import chapters from 2019 through 2024.
Origin-area HHI for six import chapters. Electrical equipment is consistently the most concentrated, while vegetables are the least concentrated. Source: UN Comtrade; author's calculations.

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Electrical equipment's HHI rose from 0.268 in 2019 to 0.361 in 2024. The 2024 values were 0.169 for dairy and eggs, 0.150 for meat, 0.121 for machinery, 0.111 for pharmaceuticals, and 0.073 for vegetables.

A diversified basket can still depend on a common route or upstream input, while a concentrated basket can rest on reliable long-term suppliers. The graph identifies different sourcing structures. It does not finish a supply-risk assessment.

A fixed-share origin-currency index

I freeze each chapter's origin weights at mean 2019 to 2021 import values. Covered origins are mapped to public exchange-rate series, and annual currency movements are combined with those fixed weights. Only baskets with at least 80% covered baseline value appear in the chart.

Line chart of fixed-share origin-currency indices for four Kuwait import chapters from 2022 through 2024.
Fixed-share origin-currency indices for machinery, pharmaceuticals, dairy and eggs, and electrical equipment. Origin currency is not observed invoice currency. Sources: UN Comtrade and Federal Reserve H.10 series through FRED; author's calculations.

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All four displayed baskets load onto broad dollar appreciation in 2022, but by different amounts. The covered-share-normalized movements range from 4.8 log percent for dairy and eggs to 8.2 for pharmaceuticals. The cross-basket spread is widest in 2023.

What the measures do and do not establish

The figures establish that Kuwait's import exposures differ across product chapters. They do not measure imported inflation, supplier price shocks, invoice-currency exposure, or exchange-rate pass-through. Those questions require usable product quantities and prices, actual invoice currency, and a design that separates external shocks from changing demand and sourcing.

Citation and sources

Suggested citation: Abdulmalik Altararwa. 2026. "Kuwait Does Not Have One Import Exposure." Research blog.

Sources: Trade values come from the UN Comtrade public API. Currency series come from Federal Reserve H.10 releases through FRED.

Public-release boundary: This page publishes aggregate estimates, original figures, and source links. It does not publish raw records, restricted data, or local research files.